Joby Aviation 电动垂直起降航空器适航审定进展及商业前景预测

Steven Porrello, The Motley Fool

Thu, October 8, 2026 at 2:35 AM GMT+9 4 min read

Like a toddler, Joby Aviation (NYSE: JOBY) seems to be growing up fast.

No longer is it the speculative aviation stock of yesterday, the company with big ambitions but zero revenue and nothing to its name but an experimental aircraft. There are still unknowns to be solved -- how to scale its business while keeping costs under control -- but if last month's flight demonstrations in Texas showed us anything, it's that Joby is getting very close to turning its air taxi dreams into a commercial operation.

Missed AI's "Act 1"? Act 2 Could Be 14x Bigger. Most investors think they missed the AI boat because they didn't buy Nvidia in 2005. But according to our analysts, we're only at the end of "Act 1"—the R&D phase. "Act 2" is the global rollout. Continue »

Where, then, will Joby Aviation be in three years? And how much will a $5,000 investment today be worth by then?

What I expect from Joby over the next three years

In a nutshell, Joby wants to commercialize a passenger electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) aircraft. Although it does not have regulatory approval to fly paying customers in an eVTOL, I believe it will in three years.

Indeed, Joby is already farther along in the five-stage FAA certification process than most people think. It has completed about 75% of the fourth stage, and it is now making steady progress through the fifth and final stage. In September, it began flight demonstrations in Texas for the White House-backed eVTOL Integration Pilot Program (eIPP). While Joby hasn't given a firm date for when it expects to receive this much-needed certification, I think it's reasonable to expect it will clear this hurdle well before the end of 2029.

Not only that, but I also expect Joby to produce more aircraft in that year. Right now, Joby's goal is to have the manufacturing capacity to produce four aircraft monthly in 2027. With help from its manufacturing partner, Toyota Motor, I think Joby will have the capacity to support even more aircraft by 2029.

Finally, I believe Joby's revenue will be significantly higher than today. Right now, Joby's revenue comes mostly from Blade's passenger business. By 2029, however, Joby will likely have several revenue streams, including its own air taxi services and defense work through its planned acquisition of Resonant Sciences.

JOBY Revenue (TTM) data by YCharts

A $5,000 investment in Joby today will be worth this much

With all that said, I strongly believe Joby will more than double by the end of 2029. More specifically, I think shares will be worth $15 by then. Doing the math, a $5,000 investment today would be worth about $13,000 in three years.