JOBY：国防与自主性带来积极因素，执行能力仍是短期份额增长的瓶颈

Analysts have trimmed their fair value estimate for Joby Aviation from about $10.68 to $10.34 per share, reflecting updated views on market share risks, manufacturing capacity and a higher assumed future P/E of roughly 390x versus about 359x previously.

Analyst Commentary

Recent research on Joby Aviation shows a wide gap between bullish and bearish views, with debates centered on market share potential, execution risk in a new aircraft category and how to justify the stock's current valuation.

Bullish Takeaways

• Bullish analysts see Joby Aviation's move into the defense market through the Resonant Sciences acquisition as a way to access revenue that may face lower certification friction than commercial operations.
• The creation of a dedicated defense business unit is viewed as a way to separate and clarify revenue streams, which could help investors assess execution in defense versus commercial use cases.
• Some forecasts highlight a possible acceleration phase for the acquired defense unit, backed by bookings in the first half of 2026 that are described as more than three times 2025 levels and a backlog that has more than doubled year over year.
• On paper, long term revenue projections for Joby Aviation, including a jump from US$122 million in 2026 to US$14.2b in 2036 in one research model, frame the stock as a high growth story if execution in both defense and commercial segments tracks to plan.

Bearish Takeaways

• Bearish analysts question whether Joby Aviation can secure the level of market share implied by its current valuation, especially if the electric vertical take off and landing market does not favor a single dominant player.
• There is concern that Joby Aviation's aircraft may not have the payload capacity to address the full range of use cases, which could limit addressable market size compared with more flexible competitors.
• Execution risk is flagged around the decision to manufacture, operate and service its own aircraft in a brand new market, which could stretch management focus and capital and affect timelines.
• Some bearish views point to a premium valuation multiple, with a target price of US$4 alongside an Underweight rating, and argue that Joby Aviation's share price does not yet reflect the level of execution and certification risk embedded in the business model.

What’s in the News for Joby Aviation

• On October 2, 2026, a federal jury found Joby Aviation liable for breaching a confidentiality agreement and misappropriating trade secrets related to aircraft air data probes, with Aerosonic awarded about US$116.9 million in damages. Barclays analyst Anthony Valentini moved the stock rating from Equal-Weight to Underweight and cut the price target from US$6 to US$4 following the verdict. Source: recent news reports.
• Joby Aviation completed what it describes as the first fully autonomous coast to coast flight in the US using a converted Cessna 208B Grand Caravan that traveled 3,199 miles from California to North Carolina. The aircraft handled taxi, takeoff, routing, real time weather adjustments and landing without control inputs from the onboard safety pilot, under remote supervision from Joby facilities and military partners. Source: Electric Skies initiative coverage and company updates.
• The same autonomous J208 aircraft is undertaking a month-long, 10 state tour as part of Joby Aviation’s 2026 Electric Skies program, with stops that include Phoenix, Fort Worth, Shaw Air Force Base and the Outer Banks near Kitty Hawk. The tour is being used to show use cases in freight, medical transport, disaster response and defense logistics and to support US programs such as the eVTOL and AAM Integration Pilot Program and the uFLY coalition. Source: company event disclosures.
• Joby Aviation deployed BitRipple’s LT3 adaptive transport platform across its flight test operations as a communications layer for real time telemetry. The system aims to maintain connectivity across satellite and cellular networks to support FAA Type Inspection Authorization testing. Source: BitRipple partnership announcement.
• The company filed for a US$750 million at the market follow on equity offering, and separately leased a 45,000 square foot facility at Perot Field Fort Worth Alliance Airport to support future electric air taxi operations in the Dallas Fort Worth area. Source: capital markets filings and facility expansion announcements.

Valuation Changes for Joby Aviation

Recent model updates for Joby Aviation focus on modest shifts in core assumptions rather than a complete reset. The changes mainly affect fair value, growth, profitability and the future P/E used in the analysis.

• Fair Value: The fair value estimate has edged lower from about $10.68 to about $10.34 per share, reflecting small adjustments across several inputs.
• Discount Rate: The discount rate has eased slightly from about 8.25% to about 8.22%, which marginally lifts the present value of future cash flows in the model.
• Revenue Growth: The assumed long term revenue growth rate has risen slightly from about 83.48% to about 84.32%, indicating a marginally stronger growth outlook within the model.
• Net Profit Margin: The assumed net profit margin has fallen from about 6.24% to about 5.59%, which softens the earnings power implied by the projections.
• Future P/E: The future P/E multiple applied in the valuation has risen from about 358.7x to about 390.2x, highlighting a higher assumed earnings multiple despite the lower profit margin assumption.