Archer Aviation 超越 Joby Aviation 在 TipRanks AI 评分中，尽管两者均被评级为中性

TipRanks' AI analyst gives Archer Aviation (ACHR) the edge over Joby Aviation (JOBY) in the race to commercialize electric air taxis, though it assigns a Neutral rating to both stocks. The model scores Archer at 56 against Joby's 48, with price targets of $4 and $4.50 respectively, according to TipRanks.

The gap between the two electric vertical take-off and landing developers comes down to balance-sheet strength, cash consumption and the pace at which each is converting certification work into revenue. Neither company has yet demonstrated it can turn technical progress into sustainable profit, which is why the ratings remain neutral.

Archer closed the second quarter with roughly $1.6 billion in liquidity and carries debt that is modest relative to its equity base. That cushion gives the company room to fund certification, aircraft development and operations before its Midnight aircraft reaches commercial scale.

The AI analyst also flags Archer's proposed purchase of three Boeing (BA) businesses - Wisk Aero, Insitu and SkyGrid - as a potential positive. Insitu, a military drone manufacturer, is already profitable and generates more than $200 million in annual revenue. If the transaction closes as planned, it would hand Archer a near-term revenue stream outside passenger air taxis.

Operationally, Archer has logged more than 150 piloted test flights, obtained an FAA-approved quality management system and advanced into the final phase of type certification for Midnight.

The weak spot is the financials. Archer booked just $5 million of revenue in the second quarter while posting an adjusted EBITDA loss of $177 million. Trailing free cash flow stood at about negative $659 million. The Boeing deal also carries dilution and integration risk, and it has not yet closed.

Joby, for its part, generated $39 million of second-quarter revenue, largely through Blade, and lifted its full-year revenue guidance to a range of $115 million to $125 million. Blade seat volumes climbed more than 50% year over year in the quarter, giving the company an operating business while it works toward commercial air-taxi service. Joby ended the period with about $2.3 billion in cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments.

Manufacturing and certification are progressing. Joby had five electric aircraft in flight, including its first FAA-conforming aircraft, with another 12 in production. The company said manufacturing nonconformance fell about 40% in the first half.

Losses and cash burn remain heavy, however. The second-quarter GAAP net loss widened to $245 million, with an adjusted EBITDA loss of $197 million. Management expects cash use of $385 million to $415 million in the second half, and trailing free cash flow was about negative $744 million. An aircraft-availability constraint is also limiting how much passenger demand the company can convert into revenue.

Note: Figures are for the second quarter of 2026 and are drawn from company disclosures cited in the analysis.

The higher score for Archer reflects its stronger balance-sheet profile and the prospect that the Boeing assets add profitable revenue sooner. Joby has more current revenue and more cash on hand, but heavier losses, a larger debt load and steeper cash burn weigh on its rating.

The two companies are taking different paths toward certification. Archer in 2026 became the first eVTOL developer to complete Phase 3 of the FAA's four-phase type certification process, and in September it flew Midnight between Salinas and Hollister, California, a trip of about 12 minutes against roughly 40 minutes by car. Joby is working through a separate five-stage process and appears further along overall, though the two tracks are not directly comparable.

Both stocks have been punished by investors this year. Archer opened 2026 at about $8 a share and has since fallen to roughly $4, a decline of about 50%. The selloff has coincided with genuine corporate progress, including the certification milestones and the pending Boeing transaction.

Even with the acquisitions, risks remain substantial. Boeing would receive a significant ownership stake in Archer if the deal closes, diluting existing holders. And $200 million of annual revenue from Insitu would not come close to covering Archer's expenses, which totaled about $284 million in the latest quarter alone.

The broader opportunity remains speculative. Morgan Stanley once estimated the urban air mobility market could be worth $9 trillion by 2050, a projection that depends on certification, infrastructure and consumer acceptance arriving on schedule. Fortune Business Insights projects the eVTOL market growing at a 36.8% compound annual rate from 2026 to 2034.

For Joby, the central vulnerability is financing. The company has burned roughly $100 million to $200 million of cash per quarter over the past year, and its liquidity has risen only because it raised money through two stock offerings and a convertible debt issue. That approach lifted the share count 13% over 12 months, while total liabilities climbed 156% year over year to $985 million at the end of the second quarter. A recession that tightened credit conditions and forced partners such as Toyota, Delta Air Lines and Uber to trim spending would hit a stock already trading at about ten times its 2028 sales forecast.

Joby's S4 aircraft carries one pilot and four passengers, travels up to 150 miles on a charge and reaches a top speed of 200 miles per hour. It uses single tilt-rotor propellers for both lift and cruise rather than separate, heavier rotors, which lets it fly faster and stay aloft longer than many competing designs. Analysts expect Joby's revenue to climb from $53 million in 2025 to $432 million in 2028 if it completes certification and becomes a vertically integrated operator that builds, owns and flies its own fleet.

The investment case for both companies therefore rests on execution against a fixed cash runway. Archer's lower leverage and the potential for Insitu to contribute profit early give it the more balanced risk-reward setup in the near term, while Joby offers more visible commercial traction but faces greater financial strain. Investors weighing the pair are effectively choosing between a stronger balance sheet and a faster-moving operating business - a trade-off that the Neutral ratings suggest has yet to resolve in either company's favor.

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