Joby 若有一块拼图落位或价值倍增

Vandita Jadeja

Tue, October 13, 2026 at 9:00 PM GMT+9 5 min read

Quick Read

• JOBY trades at its 52-week low with a $10.45 price target and Speculative BUY rating, implying nearly 100% upside if FAA certification arrives on schedule.

• Certified rival EHang (EH) saw Q2 revenue drop 47%, while Archer (ACHR) posted just $5M, proving a type certificate alone doesn't guarantee commercial success.

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Joby Aviation (NYSE:JOBY) trades at $5.23, which is also its 52-week low. The 24/7 Wall St. price target for Joby is $10.45 over the next 12 months, meaning 99.8% upside.

The model gives Joby a speculative buy rating with medium confidence.

Everything depends on one piece of the puzzle: FAA type certification, which would turn Joby's air taxi from a test program into a fleet that makes revenue. Until that happens, almost all of Joby's sales come from Blade, and the stock price suggests investors expect certification to slip.

A 60% Slide Even After a Revenue Beat and Flights in Texas

Shares fell 12.1% over the past week and 18.54% over the past month. They are down 60.38% year to date and sit well below the 52-week high of $18.77.

In Q2, revenue came in at $38.64 million against a $30.38 million estimate. EPS of -$0.25 missed expectations of -$0.2345. Management raised full-year revenue guidance to $115 million to $125 million after Blade seats rose more than 50%. Joby has since started its eIPP flights in Texas as planned, but the shares have kept falling.

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Why Bulls See $18.77 Again

Joby has completed 83% of Stage 3 certification work and 20% of Stage 4. CFO Rodrigo Brumana said the eIPP markets alone "could absorb the whole production for quite some time."

Joby also has a manufacturing alliance with Toyota (NYSE:TM), with a $250 million direct investment expected, and plans to double output to four aircraft per month in 2027. If conditions improve, a return to the $18.77 high is realistic.