高盛对Archer Aviation股票做出意外判断

Moz Farooque ACCA

Thu, October 15, 2026 at 2:02 AM GMT+9

This article first appeared on GuruFocus.

Archer Aviation (ACHR) investors got an unusual mix of good news and bad news from Goldman Sachs.

The bank now expects smaller losses from Archer in coming years, but it still cut its 12-month price target on the electric-aircraft company to $7 from $8 and kept a Neutral rating. The reason is valuation: Goldman is simply willing to pay less for Archer's future sales than it was before.

That distinction matters for a stock like Archer (NYSE:ACHR), where much of the investment case depends on revenue and aircraft deliveries that are still years away.

Goldman analyst Noah Poponak lowered the enterprise-value-to-sales multiple he applies to Archer's projected 2030 revenue to 2.5 times from 3 times. That change was enough to push the target lower even though some of his operating forecasts improved.

Archer shares fell another 5.33% to $4.44, extending what TipRanks described as the stock's recent downward spiral.

Goldman sees better earnings, but execution risks remain

The bank now expects Archer to lose $1.27 per share in 2028, better than its previous estimate for a $1.38 loss.

Its projected 2030 loss also narrowed to $0.16 per share from $0.22, reflecting updated expectations for eVTOL and defense-aircraft deliveries.

So the target cut is not really a call that Archer's business outlook suddenly deteriorated.

Goldman's concern is that investors may still be paying too much for revenue that depends on several important milestones being reached first.

Poponak remains cautious about Archer's certification timeline, limited vertical integration and the timing of defense applications. Those issues determine how quickly the company can move from aircraft development toward meaningful commercial revenue.

That is the real pressure point.

An eVTOL company can improve long-range earnings assumptions on paper, but those projections only become meaningful if certification, manufacturing and customer deliveries arrive close to schedule.