Joby Aviation 电动垂直起降航空器获 FAA 五阶段认证进展达 75%

Like a toddler, Joby Aviation (JOBY -0.52%) seems to be growing up fast.

No longer is it the speculative aviation stock of yesterday, the company with big ambitions but zero revenue and nothing to its name but an experimental aircraft. There are still unknowns to be solved -- how to scale its business while keeping costs under control -- but if last month's flight demonstrations in Texas showed us anything, it's that Joby is getting very close to turning its air taxi dreams into a commercial operation.

Where, then, will Joby Aviation be in three years? And how much will a $5,000 investment today be worth by then?

Image source: Joby Aviation.

What I expect from Joby over the next three years

In a nutshell, Joby wants to commercialize a passenger electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) aircraft. Although it does not have regulatory approval to fly paying customers in an eVTOL, I believe it will in three years.

Indeed, Joby is already farther along in the five-stage FAA certification process than most people think. It has completed about 75% of the fourth stage, and it is now making steady progress through the fifth and final stage. In September, it began flight demonstrations in Texas for the White House-backed eVTOL Integration Pilot Program (eIPP). While Joby hasn't given a firm date for when it expects to receive this much-needed certification, I think it's reasonable to expect it will clear this hurdle well before the end of 2029.

Not only that, but I also expect Joby to produce more aircraft in that year. Right now, Joby's goal is to have the manufacturing capacity to produce four aircraft monthly in 2027. With help from its manufacturing partner, Toyota Motor, I think Joby will have the capacity to support even more aircraft by 2029.

Finally, I believe Joby's revenue will be significantly higher than today. Right now, Joby's revenue comes mostly from Blade's passenger business. By 2029, however, Joby will likely have several revenue streams, including its own air taxi services and defense work through its planned acquisition of Resonant Sciences.

JOBY Revenue (TTM) data by YCharts

A $5,000 investment in Joby today will be worth this much

With all that said, I strongly believe Joby will more than double by the end of 2029. More specifically, I think shares will be worth $15 by then. Doing the math, a $5,000 investment today would be worth about $13,000 in three years.

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Today's Change

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Current Price

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5.75

Granted, that's a very bullish estimate, and it very much assumes Joby clears the FAA hurdle and begins manufacturing at scale. If I were to project a more bearish scenario -- say, FAA-type certification takes longer than expected, or air taxis don't catch on quickly enough -- I'd see Joby trading at a price not much higher than today's.

That is, of course, the risk of investing in Joby: Its valuation today leaves plenty of room for growth, yet success isn't guaranteed.

As such, I'd continue to approach Joby Aviation stock with caution. A small speculative position might suit aggressive investors, but don't feel as if you have to buy this one yet if you're not comfortable with volatility.