eVTOL 队列或于 2050 年接近 7000 架

A new forecast from Valour Consultancy projects a global in-service fleet of just under 7,000 electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) air taxis by 2050, pointing to a slower and more constrained rollout of urban air mobility than some earlier industry projections.

The analysis, published in The Future of Advanced Air Mobility – 2026, estimates 6,824 passenger eVTOL aircraft will be operating by mid-century. The consultancy describes the trajectory as a “gradual, infrastructure-limited” buildout rather than the rapid scaling often envisioned in early market expectations.

The report suggests eVTOL air taxi operations will remain concentrated in a small number of dense metropolitan regions. According to Valour, viable service networks will likely depend on megacities with strong demand, significant infrastructure investment, and a high-income passenger base capable of supporting premium pricing models.

Operating costs remain a central constraint in the forecast. The report cites battery replacement cycles, insurance, pilot training, and vertiport fees as factors likely to keep fares well above conventional ride-hailing services. It also notes that the long-promised “Uber-style” pricing structure for air taxis appears unlikely under current economics.

Geographically, the report expects China to lead early deployment, driven by coordinated infrastructure development and state-backed investment in low-altitude aviation systems. Elsewhere, progress is expected to be slower, with regulatory fragmentation and limited vertiport buildout acting as key barriers to scale.

While eVTOL air taxis make up a small share of the forecast, Valour expects broader growth across advanced air mobility, including regional electric aircraft, cargo drones, and hybrid-electric designs. Combined, these segments could total more than 19,000 aircraft in service worldwide by 2050.